Darnold's Decision- How The USC QB Can Impact the 2018 NFL Draft
It wasn’t too long ago that USC QB Sam Darnold was garnered as the next top QB to enter the NFL Draft and after his impressive performance vs Penn State in the Rose Bowl, all eyes were on Darnold this season. Many individuals, myself included, ranked Darnold as the top QB entering college football this season and the consensus was that he would enter the enter in 2018. But over the last few weeks and months, there seems to be a growing sentiment that Darnold may in fact return to USC for another year. Not only will it be one of the more interesting topics as the draft conversation picks up in the coming months but Sam Darnold’s decision could ultimately have a bigger impact on the NFL Draft than some think.
As of right now the top two QBs who look to be atop many draft boards is the aforementioned Darnold along with fellow west coast kid, UCLA’s Josh Rosen. After Darnold and Rosen the debate begins about who is the next QB on the list including Oklahoma standout and Heisman Trophy favorite Baker Mayfield, Louisville’s Lamar Jackson, Oklahoma State’s Mason Rudolph and Wyoming’s Josh Allen. Some like Mayfield and Jackson for their combination of mobility, athleticism and confidence while others favor Rudolph and Allen for their size and potential at the next level. Now this debate will continue up until draft night and we really won’t know who is favored among NFL GMs until the picks are made but one thing is for certain in this NFL Draft, Darnold’s decision is important. Not only does Darnold’s decision impact the rest of the QBs in the draft but it could alter the entire first round of the draft which ultimately could lead to a trickle down affect in later rounds. Let’s examine a prime example of how Darnold’s decision could impact the draft so to do that, we need to go back to the 2011 & 2012 NFL Drafts.
Back in 2011, Andrew Luck was atop most draft boards and was considered a “can’t miss” prospect and a future franchise QB for any organization. Instead of entering the 2011 NFL Draft, Luck went back to Stanford for another season leading Heisman Trophy winner Cam Newton to be selected #1 overall by the Carolina Panthers. But what if Luck entered the draft instead of returning to college? Well, Luck would have most likely been the #1 pick, leading Newton to fall to the Denver Broncos at #2 therefore causing a trickle down affect for other top prospects like Von Miller and AJ Green. Think about that for a second; Luck would be a Panther. Newton would be a Bronco which would cause Peyton Manning to instead sign elsewhere or maybe not even leave Indianapolis in the first place. This would have also affected future drafts including the following year when Robert Griffin III would have then been the #1 overall pick to whoever landed the top spot (remember if Manning doesn’t sign in Denver, he might have stayed with the Colts leading another team to have the top draft pick in 2012).
Consider the idea of Sam Darnold returning to USC for 2018 and how it could impact the rest of the draft. Teams in need of a new QB might be forced to reach for one higher than expected which could push higher rated prospects further down the draft. We could see Josh Allen or Baker Mayfield go in the top 10. Let’s take that idea even further- Mayfield and Allen go in the top 10, along with Lamar Jackson. It’s a crazy thought to consider but is it really? We’ve seen less than qualified QB prospects go higher than anyone expected so the thought of Baker Mayfield or Lamar Jackson or any other top QB outside of Darnold or Rosen being a potential top 10-15 pick should become more of a possibility.
Sam Darnold has been one of the more polarizing players in college football and as we inch closer to the off-season and eventually the NFL Draft, the spotlight on Darnold and his decision will only get brighter.