NFL Draft- Running Back Revolution?
Since American football was established over 70+ years ago, the only form of offense most teams had was the running game. As football grew to become the national power it is today many of the original teams had themselves elite running games thanks to hall of fame talent including Jim Brown, Gale Sayers and Paul Hornung. Since then we have seen several more establish themselves as the best of the best and even a select few who helped their teams win Superbowls including Walter Payton and Emmitt Smith. While the NFL was known as a running game driven league, the tables were soon turning as we began to see an influx of gun slinging quarterbacks who transformed the NFL into a pass happy league.
Over the last 30 years we have seen numerous quarterbacks set and break records including Dan Marino, John Elway and Peyton Manning and with this new increase in quarterback talent, many began to believe that the running back position was soon becoming less and less important. Instead of every team having a great running back, elite running games were slowly becoming a thing of the past and teams were relying less on their running backs and more on their passing attack. Rather than having 10-15 elite running backs, there only seems to be a handful that teams would draft with their 1st round picks. Now while a franchise quarterback is important to contending for a Superbowl, how important is it to have an elite running back? Should teams begin to invest in running backs early in the draft as they once did in the past? To answer that we must look at how winning teams are built on the offensive side of the ball. Below we will analyze the top running offenses over the past few seasons and its impact on the team’s performances:
2016 playoff teams with a top 10 running offense:
Dallas
New England
Atlanta
Oakland
Houston
Miami
2015 playoff teams with a top 10 running offense:
Carolina
Seattle
Minnesota
Kansas City
Arizona
2014 playoff teams with a top 10 running offense:
Seattle
Cincinnati
Carolina
Baltimore
As we can see having a top running offense is indeed a key component to competing for a playoff spot in the NFL. Now not every playoff team has a top 10 running offense in terms of statistics but even if we look at the 4 remaining teams in this year’s playoffs, all 4 teams have at least a good running game to complement their elite quarterbacks. In no way am I advocating teams to reach in the draft for a running back solely based on these stats but this year’s running back class looks to have 4-5 potential starters including a couple who are considered game changing playmakers. Given how some teams have a potential franchise quarterback yet lack a running game, these are the situations where one running back can change the entire dynamic of an NFL offense.
There are several teams who would not be a dominant or even relevant on offense if they didn’t have their running back. Would Dallas be the same team if they passed on Ezekiel Elliott? Do you think the Dolphins would be a playoff team without Jay Ajayi? Oh, and let’s not forget how Adrian Peterson has basically been the face of the Vikings for the last decade.
Now I know some will say “top running backs have been drafted outside the 1st or 2nd round” and if that’s possible than great, but unless a team has an elite quarterback, a top running game is crucial to succeeding. How about this scenario- if the Panthers are on the clock and it’s down to a cornerback like Quincy Wilson or the top running back Leonard Fournette the decision should be easy. Sure, Wilson might give the Panthers a future #1 or #2 cornerback but Fournette could give the Panthers a top running game instantly. Even if Fournette was unable to play up to the standards as many expects for him, his potential on the field along would cause teams to game-plan for him each week.
The running back position has gone through a strange transition from #1 priority on offense to an afterthought behind the passing game and now potentially back to a top priority in the draft. With a stacked running back class that includes Fournette, Dalvin Cook, Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara and D’Onta Foreman, do not be surprised if we see these prospects and a few others selected in the first 2 rounds of the draft. 2 years ago, we saw 2 running backs selected in the 1st round (Todd Gurley and Melvin Gordon) but this year I think that will be topped thanks to a great group of running back prospects. I think it’s safe to say the running back revolution is slowly approaching and maybe this class re-establishes the importance of the running back in the NFL.