NFL Draft 2017- Trade Possibilities in the Top 5?
Well it seems like the draft trade rumors are beginning to heat up with a little over a week left until the NFL Draft descends upon the City of Brotherly love on April 27th. A few days ago, MMQB’s Peter King stated that a few teams drafting in the top 10 are looking to trade out of their spot in the top 10 including the 49ers, Bears and Jets. Even though draft trades have now become a common occurrence, what does this news say about the value in the top 10 this year? What can these teams except to get in return if they do indeed decide to trade their pick? Let’s first look at why these teams may want to trade out of their pick.
It’s not a secret that these three teams are in need of one key position, quarterback. Sure, the Bears signed Mike Glennon, the Jets have two young guys in Hackenberg and Petty and the 49ers signed Brian Hoyer, but these do not seem to be their long-term answers by any stretch of the imagination. So why not just keep their picks and draft a quarterback? Some suggest that this year’s quarterback class is void of a star signal caller while others argue the talent is there it’s just comes down to development. Regardless of what is said in the media, what really matters is how these teams view these quarterbacks and from the looks of it, many of the quarterback needy teams are certainly doing their homework. The 49ers, Bears and Jets have all met with at least one of the top projected quarterbacks at it seems each team has their eyes set on selecting one early in the draft. Now back to the question previously mentioned- why not just draft one in the top 10? The fact is that the value in this draft is big on the defensive side of the ball and if the quarterbacks in this draft have less value than previous years, why not try to reap the benefits of this deep class and trade back while still getting a quarterback? With that thought in mind, let’s take a look at what previous top 10 trades and what teams got in return:
2016
Rams received- #1, 113 & 177
Titans received- #15, 43, 45, 76 & 2017 1st round pick & 3rd round pick
Eagles received- #2 & conditional 2017 4th round pick
Browns received- #8, 77, 100 & 2017 1st round pick (#12) & 2018 2nd round pick
2014
Bills received- #4
Browns received- #9 & 2015 1st round pick & 4th round pick
2013
Rams received- #8 & 71
Bills received- #16, 46, 78 & 222
Dolphins received- #3
Raiders received- #12 & 42
2012
Redskins received- #2
Rams received- #6, 39 & 2013 1st round pick & 2014 1st round pick
Cowboys received- #6
Jaguars received- #14 &45
Now looking at these 7 trades, I want to highlight the 2014 Bills-Browns trade along with the 2013 Dolphins-Raiders trade. Why I wanted to focus more on these trades is because these are the trades that may be the types of deals we see occur next week rather than the 2012 Redskins-Rams trade when they traded up for Robert Griffin III. Rather than seeing a team trade up for a top quarterback teams may want to trade back due to the devaluing of the quarterbacks this year which is why we may see teams trade up for defensive talent or maybe even a running back.
One scenario that has been discussed is the 49ers potentially trading the #2 pick to the Panther to allow Carolina to draft running back Leonard Fournette. If the 49ers were to make this trade, it might look very similar to the 2014 Bills-Browns trade when the Bills traded up for wide receiver Sammy Watkins.
Another previous trade that might draw some similarities to a potential trade in the near future is the 2013 Rams-Bills trade where we saw the Bills trade back and eventually select quarterback EJ Manuel. Manuel was a surprise selection in that draft and since this year’s quarterback seems to have similar question marks, it may be fitting to see a team like the Bears trade back, gain some picks and then draft a quarterback like DeShaun Watson.
Considering many trades occur between now and draft day, it’s safe to say there will be new rumors every day and until it happens, they are simply rumors. While there may be 0% truth to this speculation, it would not be surprising to see one of these top 5-7 picks moved on the night of the draft and maybe, just maybe, we get a chance to see 3-4 trades made within the first ½ of the hour of the NFL Draft. It’s draft season folks, so buckle up because it’s going to be a rumored filled week leading up to April 27th.