Did the Cardinals Make a Mistake by Passing on a QB in the 2017 Draft?
The Arizona Cardinals at one point in time were considered one of the best teams in the NFL and a true threat to any team they were matched up against. The team brought in a new head coach in Bruce Arians, who was considered by many to be one of the top offensive-minded coaches in the league, along with a veteran QB in Carson Palmer. During the 2015 season, the Cardinals took the NFL by storm amassing a 13-3 record behind Palmer who was in consideration for MVP after his most productive season since his tenure with the Bengals. The team also had a myriad of talent including WR Larry Fitzgerald, CB Patrick Peterson, S Tyrann Mathieu and rookie sensation RB David Johnson which made the Cardinals deadly on both offense and defense.
Heading into the 2016 season, it seemed like the year was going to go the Cardinals way; most of their star talent was returning, the coaching staff was intact, and Carson Palmer was healthy and ready to lead the team once again in the NFC. While the stars were aligned for the Cardinals to succeed, something did not seem to click during the season. After the dust settled and the season came to an end, the Cardinals finished the season 7-8-1, a big drop off from 13-3.
What is even more interesting about the season was that there was not a drop off in terms of production on either side of the ball, which supports the claim “anything can happen on any given Sunday”. It seems as though the Cardinals just had an unlucky season and while they might reclaim some of that 2015 success this up-coming season, one question popped in my head when the off-season approached; how much longer can Carson Palmer play at this level? At 37 years of age, Carson Palmer has played in the NFL for 13 years and it seems like his career may be coming to a screeching halt. With his experience in the league and coach Arians being a “quarterback guru”, it almost seemed to be a guarantee the Cardinals would find their next QB in the draft with the #13 overall pick. Coincidently, the QB class in the 2017 NFL Draft was seen as a developmental group that would need time being a veteran QB which made Arizona an ideal spot for any of the top QB prospects. The Cardinals were also a perfect fit for drafting a QB at #13 because they had minimal weaknesses on their team and did not have many needs to address which would allow them to draft a QB rather than another position.
So what happened in the draft? Why did they not draft QB #13 overall? Let’s examine what happened on draft night; the Bears traded up one spot to draft QB Mitchell Trubisky, the Chiefs followed suit by trading up for QB Patrick Mahomes and the Texans soon followed by trading up for QB DeShaun Watson. All of these trades happened before the Cardinals’ pick which took them out of contention for one of the top QB prospects leaving other prospects like DeShone Kizer or Nathan Peterman. Instead the Cardinals chose to upgrade their defense in the first 2 rounds by drafting LB Haason Reddick in the first round, followed by S Budda Baker in the second round and in the end the Cardinals did not draft a QB in the draft. While I do like their selections and believe Reddick and Baker can be instant contributors, I do think they made a mistake by not drafting a QB early, especially considering the age of Carson Palmer and the state of the franchise.
Maybe the Cardinals didn’t like any of the QBs in the draft; maybe they believe Palmer can play 3-4 more years. That may be the case, but let’s run through a quick scenario of how the Cardinals future might pan out in the next few years:
Carson Palmer plays for 2 more years and retires at the age of 40 leaving the Cardinals with a big question mark at QB. Outside of Larry Fitzgerald and a few other pieces, the Cardinals core is still made up of young talent who are able to compete in the playoffs but lack talent and leadership at QB. Now the team is in that grey area of the NFL where they are not a bad team but they are not a playoff team either, leaving them to draft in the 14-18 range. The Cardinals now either have to overspend for a QB in free agency or they have to make a big splash in the draft and trade up for a young QB in the first round.
Now maybe this isn’t how it actually plays out in the next few years, but the point is that the Cardinals should have invested an early pick on a QB. If we could go back in time and re-do the 2017 Draft, the ideal situation would have been for the Cardinals to still draft Reddick at #13 but then draft QB DeShone Kizer in the second round instead of Baker. Kizer had a lot of potential heading into the draft and all he needed was the right team to draft him which could have been the Cardinals. Kizer could have learned the offense behind a veteran leader in Palmer and could have been coached by one of the best HC’s in the league in Arians while not having the pressure to start for the next few years. Once Palmer retires, Kizer could take over at QB with confidence already knowing the offense and could help continue the Cardinals in their pursuit of a championship. It sounds like a great idea but of course we will never know because it did not happen this way in reality. Whether it’s next year or 3 years from now, we can only speculate about the Arizona Cardinals’ future at QB and what they decide to do once the Carson Palmer era comes to an end.