Making Sense of Trubisky Going #2 Overall to Chicago
The 1st round of the NFL Draft has come and gone and while there were many shocking and interesting moments throughout the night, no team made a bigger statement than the Chicago Bears. Other teams may have made better selections like the 49ers securing two of the best prospects in the draft in Solomon Thomas and Reuben Foster, but the Bears were the team who made the biggest wave in the 1st round. With Myles Garrett off the board, Bears GM Ryan Pace did not hesitate to get his guy and he did so by trading multiple picks to move up one spot to select…Mitchell Trubisky.
Now I must admit, when this trade went down last night, my initial thought was that the Bears were trading up to get Solomon Thomas until I saw what they gave up to acquire the #2 pick which included their 3rd and 4th round pick in this year’s draft. When Roger Goodell walked out on the stage and said, “the Chicago Bears select Mitchell Trubisky” I was literally at a loss of words considering that the chances of Trubisky being on the board at #3 were pretty high. So, what does this say about the future of the Bears and the futures of Ryan Pace and HC John Fox? That’s why I’m here to try to make some sense of this selection and how it may not be as bad as some are portraying it to be just 24 hours after the selection.
Mitchell Trubisky No Matter What
Remember in the movie Draft Day when Kevin Costner’s character Sonny Weaver Jr. selected Vontae Mack instead of the highly touted QB? After Weaver made the selection, he took out the folded up note out of his pocket that read “Vontae Mack no matter what” and why I bring this up is because that is what the Bears did last night. If Mitchell Trubisky is indeed the Bears’ top QB and Pace believes Trubisky to be a future championship caliber QB, then the Bears had to make that decision. If Trubisky turns out to be a Matt Ryan type QB, do those 3rd and 4th round picks matter? The answer is no. Did anyone really complain or argue against the Rams trading up for Jared Goff? Sure, maybe some didn’t agree with the Goff trade but most viewed Goff as a QB with great upside and potential to be a future franchise QB for the Rams. With that being said, I don’t see a huge gap between Goff and Trubisky. Some also argue that if Trubisky returned to college for another year and developed, he would have been the #1 pick in the 2018 NFL Draft and if that’s true then why not trade up and develop him in an NFL system. If Ryan Pace believes in Trubisky then the traded picks mean nothing if the Bears can properly develop their rookie QB into a future starter for 2018 and beyond.
Timing is Everything
The new trend within the NFL seems to be the idea of drafting a diamond in the rough QB and hoping he pans out like Dak Prescott or Russell Wilson. The fact is that this blueprint is not a good one to use when rebuilding an NFL offense from the ground up. When you break down the starting QBs in the NFL, less than 45% of starting QBs entering this season were taken after the 1st round. But let’s dive into these numbers a little more because that stat seems inflated and it is inflated to say the least. 14 out of 32 starting QBs were drafted outside the 1st round. I’m going to take Tom Brady out of this equation because he is a once in a lifetime story that will most likely never happen again in the NFL which brings the number down to 13. Eliminate Cody Kessler, Josh McCown, Tom Savage, Trevor Siemian, Mike Glennon and Brian Hoyer from this list because they are place holders at the moment and will most likely lose their starting jobs by 2018. That leaves us with 7. Only 7 legitimate starting QBs have been drafted outside the 1st round- Derek Carr, Russell Wilson, Drew Brees, Dak Prescott, Kirk Cousins, Tyrod Taylor and Andy Dalton. You could argue against Wilson and Prescott because of the teams they have around them but for the sake of this discussion I’ll leave them on this list. This means that less than 25% of the NFL’s starting QBs were drafted outside of the 1st round.
Now let’s look at some of the QBs drafted in the 1st round, more specifically the top 5. There are 14 starting QBs in the NFL who were drafted in the top 5 but like the previous argument against drafting a QB late, let’s take a closer look at these QBs as well. I will eliminate Jared Goff and Carson Wentz simply because they are only in their 2nd year. I will eliminate Blake Bortles because it seems like he is starting to digress right in front of our very eyes. I will also eliminate Sam Bradford because he did not live up to his potential after being selected #1 overall by the Rams. That leaves us with 10 QBs- Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, Alex Smith, Andrew Luck, Marcus Mariota, Jameis Winston, Carson Palmer, Matthew Stafford, Cam Newton and Matt Ryan. This means that roughly 32% of starting QBs in the NFL were drafted in the top 5. If my math is right, this would signal that drafting a QB in the top 5 works out better than taking a chance on a QB later in the draft.
With all this information now in front of us, let’s play out a scenario where the Bears don’t take a QB in the 1st round. Browns select Myles Garrett #1 overall. 49ers don’t trade with the Bears and select Solomon Thomas #2 overall. Bears decide to pass on a QB and select safety Jamal Adams #3 overall. Adams is a great defender and may be a top 5 safety within the next 5 years and the Bears hope to target a QB in the 2nd or 3rd round. In the 2nd round the Bears select QB Nathan Peterman who has pro-style offense experience and could compete for the starting job with Mike Glennon. The Bears start their 2018 season and as the season progresses, neither Glennon nor Peterman look the part of a franchise QB and end the season with a 6-10 record. The 2018 draft rolls around and the Bears have the #10 pick. There are 3 QBs on the board worth a top pick and with QB hungry teams in the top 5, the Bears have no choice but to forfeit their future for one of the QBs by trading away future 1st and 2nd round picks.
I wanted to illustrate this scenario because this could have been a realistic scenario had the Bears not traded up for Trubisky. Could they have gotten Trubisky at #3, maybe. But trading up both secures the pick and shows the dedication to finding not just some QB but the RIGHT QB for the Bears’ organization.
Worth the Risk?
The #1 question surrounding this pick- is Mitchell Trubisky worth the risk? Some may say that next year’s QB class looks a whole lot more promising with Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen and others, but that was also said about guys like Matt Barkley and look how that panned out. If Mitchell Trubisky does not pan out for the Bears and they are in need of another QB, then Ryan Pace and John Fox can pack their bags and look for employment elsewhere. But if Trubisky turns out to be a great QB, then the trade looks great on Pace’s part and the Bears have their QB for the next decade. The Bear’s probably don’t plan on drafting again in the top 3 for some time so this was the right time for the Bears to strike and it will be interesting to see what happens over the next few years with the Bears and their new QB, Mitchell Trubisky.