Bears Q&A with Aaron Leming
Bears writer, Aaron Leming, was kind enough to share his thoughts on the Chicago Bears as we enter one of their biggest off-seasons in recent history. Check out what he thinks about free agency as well as the NFL draft. You can find his work on 247 Sports & SB Nation and make sure to follow him on twitter at @AaronLemingNFL.
FREE AGENCY
WHICH IMPENDING FREE AGENTS ARE LIKLIEST TO RECEIVE A CONTRACT EXTENSION?
Right now, I'm not sure there are many. At least if you're looking at bigger names like David Montgomery. Sure, he could test the market and come back on a team-friendly deal but I have a hunch the Bears want a more explosive running back to pair with Khalil Herbert.
Safety DeAndre Houston-Carson would be No. 1 on my list to retain. He's their top special teamer and as we've seen, a quality reserve in the defensive backfield. I think he's earned a two year deal around $4.5M-$5M in total. Fullback Khari Blasingame is another player I wouldn't be shocked to see re-signed in the coming weeks. It was reported back in January that the Bears tried to get a deal done but nothing came together. As we all know, the fullback market is limited. Finally, I'd highlight Linebacker Matthew Adams as another candidate to be re-signed. He played well when healthy last year and should be cheap depth.
WHEN FREE AGENCY BEGINS, WHICH FREE AGENTS WILL RYAN POLES LIKELY TARGET? WILL HE LOOK TO UPGRADE THROUGH TRADE TOO OR JUST FREE AGENCY?
Right now, I think we can look at this roster and see that they need to help all over the place. Then we can look at the upcoming free agent market and see where the strengths and weaknesses are. Offensive line is a big one. The tackle pool will be stronger than the interior group. Mike McGlinchey is a name I have circled as a primary target. Should cost somewhere in the $16-$18 million per year range. On the interior, there are a slew of names that are quality upgrades but nothing spectacular. I'd keep eyes on center Ethan Pocic (Cleveland Browns), Isaac Seumalo (Philadelphia Eagles), and Nate Davis (Tennessee Titans). Pocic is the best center on the market and both Seumalo and Davis have ties to the organization in various ways.
The defensive line is another area where they'll need to make a splash. Javon Hargrave (Philadelphia Eagles) is the best of the bunch, but he's also 30-years-old and might be a little too old for a team in the middle of a rebuild. I'd expect Dre'Mont Jones (Denver Broncos) to be a primary target. He has experience in both fronts but he won't be cheap (may end up getting $18 million per year). Zach Allen (Arizona Cardinals) is my personal favorite. He's the youngest of the group and had a breakout year in 2022. Don't be surprised to see them add multiple names.
A few other names I'd like to see: Linebacker Bobby Okereke (Indianapolis Colts), cornerback Rock Ya-Sin (Las Vegas Raiders), receiver Darius Slayton (New York Giants), edge rushers Samson Ebukam (San Francisco 49ers) or Arden Key (Jacksonville Jaguars). I'd expect in total, the Bears to sign five-to-seven multi-year free agent deals. Most need to remember that they need to spend about $150 million in cash resources toward 2023.
WHICH FREE AGENTS WOULD YOU AVOID?
Free agency is always a calculated gamble and it's rarely a long-term answer. With that in mind, the Bears have to spend a lot of money. That means there are going to be deals where most fans are asking themselves "why did Poles pay him so much?". With that being said, I'd stay away from the top-end of this receiver class. I like Jacobi Meyers and he'd be an upgrade but not at his projected cost ($16 million or more). Allen Lazard is another one that worries me due to limited upside. I think the Bears need to add a pass catcher but they'd be better fishing in the value end of the pond (ie: Darius Slayton, Paris Campbell, D.J. Chark, etc).
FREE AGENCY PREDICTION- WHO IS THEIR FIRST FREE AGENT SIGNING?
I'm going to say offensive tackle Mike McGlinchey. I expect the Bears to attack the trenches hard this off-season and that'll start with a few big-time investments in free agency.
NFL DRAFT
WHICH PROSPECTS HAVE STOOD OUT TO YOU THIS OFF-SEASON? ARE THERE ANY SMALL SCHOOL/LESSER-KNOWN PROSPECTS THAT YOU’D LOVE TO SEE THEM TARGET IN THE LATER ROUNDS?
I'll be honest and say I haven't done a super deep dive into the draft yet. With that being said, I'm a big fan of a few players.
1. WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Ohio State): In my opinion, he's being extremely overthought. Some may say he's best suited as a slot option. While that might be the case, one of the best receivers in the game happens to play the majority of his snaps in the slot (Cooper Kupp).
2. DL Adetomiwa Adebawore (Northwestern) Adebawore might be my favorite fit for this team in the draft. Athletically, he tested off the charts. He can play on the edge or as a three-technique. He may never be an All-Pro player but he's exactly the type of swiss army knife this defense could use.
3. RB Tajae Spears (Tulane) I have a feeling the Bears are going to need a running back. With Saquon Barkley and Tony Pollard off the market, the Bears would be best served taking their swing(s) in the draft. Why not go with someone who resembles Matt Forte? He's a do-it-all back that brings that type of burst I believe they'll be looking for.
IS THERE ONE OR TWO PROSPECTS THAT YOU THINK ARE MATT EBERFLUS “GUYS”?
I'll give you two in the early rounds.
1. DE Will Anderson (Alabama): All you have to do is watch him play and listen to him talk. If he's not an Eberflus guy, I'm not sure who is. He has a non-stop motor and clearly loves the game of football. Unfortunately for the Bears, I'm not sure they'll be in range to take them if/when they trade out of No. 1 overall.
2. DL Adetomiwa Adebawore (Northwestern): See above for a better response but again, he's as versatile and as athletic as they come in this class. His length also helps.
ITS KNOWN THAT JUSTIN FIELDS AND JAXON SMITH-NJIGBA PLAYED TOGETHER AT OHIO STATE; DO YOU THINK RYAN POLES TAKES THAT INTO CONSIDERATION AND TARGETS HIM TO PAIR WITH FIELDS?
Much like last year, I fully expect Justin Fields to be included in their offensive acquisitions. Whether it's just some input or playing a bigger role is what remains to be seen. If you recall last year, Fields was brought into the draft room a week or so before the draft and was asked to watch a few of their receiving targets. Velus Jones Jr. was among those. I think this year will be similar and I do believe if the Bears trade down far enough, Smith-Njigba will be someone they'll take a long look at.
WHICH TEAMS COULD BE TARGETING THE BEARS #1 PICK AND WHAT IS THE POTENTIAL COMPENSATION?
I'll give you a list of four prospective teams with some projected compensations.
1. Houston Texans
Potential compensation: No. 1 overall for No. 2 overall, No. 33 and a 2024 3rd rounder
I know some believe the Bears could turn this small trade down, into some sort of first round pick but I simply don't see it. Especially not No. 12 overall.
2. Indianapolis Colts
Potential compensation: No. 1 overall for No. 4 overall, No. 35 overall and a 2024 1st rounder
At one point, this was my favorite option. It would recoup their early second rounder and give them that coveting future first. There's a chance they could parlay another pick (maybe a 2023 3rd rounder) but I'm still staying a little more cautious when projecting shorter trade downs.
3. Las Vegas Raiders
Potential compensation: No. 1 overall for No. 7 overall, No. 38 overall, No. 108 overall in 2023. A 1st and second in 2024.
Some may wonder why I chose Vegas over Atlanta and for me it's simple. The Raiders have sworn off most veteran options and they don't currently have a quarterback. What better way to extend a new regime's leash than a rookie quarterback?
4. Carolina Panthers
Potential compensation: No. 1 overall for No. 7 overall, No. 39 overall and No. 130 overall in 2023. A 2024 first and and third. A 2025 first.
If you're looking for a franchise-altering trade, this might be the move for you. Sure, they could include a veteran player like Brian Burns but that feels unlikely for a team that should contender in the extremely weak NFC South. The Bears might end up getting more but this should establish a realistic baseline.
NFL DRAFT PREDICTION- DO THE BEARS STAY AT #1 OR TRADE THE PICK? WHEN THEY DO SELECT, WHICH PROSPECT OR POSITION DO YOU THINK THEY TARGET?
I'd be shocked if the Bears stayed at No. 1 overall. If you listened to Peter King's radio spot on Monday, he said he spoke to multiple teams and not one of them believes Ryan Poles was bluffing when he said he had a pair of future firsts already on the table. What we don't know is who that team is. With that being said, this pick (by all accounts) is going to draw in multiple teams. A bidding war will make the price go up and by my own simple math, there will be more teams needing quarterbacks than quarterbacks projected to go in the first round. I truly believe this is a perfect situation for the Bears to be sitting in as they move into free agency next week.
Right now, I have receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba being the pick at No. 9 overall in a projected trade down with Carolina. Once you get back into that pick range, a whole lot of options open up. Sure, they could still go defensive line. I don't see them taking another tackle (because I think they'll sign one in free agency) and it's hard for me to believe that they'd take a guard like Peter Skoronski that high in the first round. Especially when considering his lack of length. I think this pick will come down to a mixture of need and what's available. You could make the argument that Smith-Njigba is more of a mid-to-late first rounder but I'd disagree. I'd much rather have my WR1 than the fourth best defensive linemen on the board.